Failure, Chaos, & Bad Decisions: Why Dash's Horrible 2019 Means It Won't Survive 2020
I. Failure In 2019, LATAM scammers ripped off Dash's treasury for 1000s of coins while providiing fake adoption statistics and embezzling money intended to save poor starving Venezuelan babies. In 2019, Dash continued its free fall in marketcap rank, plunging to 27 from a high of 3. Once 5 times Monero's marketcap, Dash is by global free market consensus now valued at less than 50% of Monero, and may soon succumb to DogeCoin, a joke currency based on a dead 2013 meme. Measrued against the standard for altcoins, the once-hopeful 2 ETH for 1 Dash rate has surrendered unconditionally to Dash-breaking bearwhales - 1 Dash is worth less than 1/3 of an ETH now. In 2019, Dash shills tried changing the subject from the "existential crisis" caused by DCG's failed Evolution Roadmap to other coins' cryptowinter vacations or fake & gamed metrics like tx/day, ignoring the obvious fact that Dash's singularly weak fundamentals and price collapsed in terms of Bitcoin, gold, fiat, and all other Top 25 altcoins. In 2019, Dash shamefully abandoned tried-and-true Nakamoto Consensus with a cheap, gimmicky "Chainlocks" version of Peercoin's good old-fashioned checkpoints. In 2019, Dash Core's chosen PR firm, Shift Communications, was a huge disappointment as it failed to engage the community, mitigate public relations disasters like MooCowMoo, or direct attention to EvoNet Platform's Open House. Dash Core also suffered the humiliation of being forced to de-endorse their own Shift Communication proposal, asking MNOs to vote down yet another money-wasting, bloated-corporation-imitating Core brainchild. In 2019, Dash's identity as "Shitcoin of the year" was confirmed after being called out as a scam by the Crypto Vigilante Group due to the instamine, centralized mangement+control, and slow+broken privacy. In 2019, Dash's support from Jeff Berwick's Dollar Vigilante Group turned very bearish to to their increased awareness of Dash's instamine and broken privacy. In 2019, Dash was listed by Coinbase, raising hopes the Number might Go Up. But nobody actually cared about Dash on Coinbase, so nothing happened afterwards to change the market's opinion that Dash is worth less than a cold sack of puke. In 2019, Dash's PrivateSend feature-cum-liability was broken by crypto research specialist u/Flenst, just as many exchanges were delisting Dash beause of its prior marketing under the old Darkcoin brand. II Chaos In 2019, every week wealthy Masternode owners dumped their 7200 "free" Dash, without returning anything for it to Dash's primary buyers. As the compounded Instamine Masternode poopulation grew, the market's ability to bear that overhead simply imploded. In 2019, Dash went from weak to weaker as falling prices and severe reputation damage thanks to Macrochip & Moocowmoo resulted in budget shortfalls for Core Group Inc, intensifing toxic conflict over who must suffer additional austerity measures. Meanwhile Dash's competitors had great years and their devs wrote AND SHIPPED amazing code, such as Cardano releasing its (absolute madhouse of an) Incentivized Shelley Staking Testnet, Monero putting RandomX into production, and Decred adding state-of-the-art CoinShuffle++. In 2019, DASH became a nightmare of change discussion and negativity. Instead of an Evolution product demo at the Open House, CEO Ryan Taylor plopped out a FUD turd and then proceded to roll around in it while all 15 people watching recoiled in horror and disgust. Markets hate uncertainty, so Dash Core's confusing new mission of endless scope creep, bikeshedding, and self re-invention only exacerbated existing negative investor sentiment. III Bad Decisions In 2019, Dash's increasinly desperate and centralized management+control (AKA spork-key hodler) entity, DCG, having lost hope in ever being competitive with successfull PoW-backed hard money cryptoassets like BTC/LTC/XMR, annouced a shocking, narrative-abandoning pivot to exploring Proof Of Stake options (as well as stripping X11 miners of their fair share of coinbase asset allocation). In 2019, Dash's CEO ruined the years-overdue Evolution Open House by inciting a massive, controversial discussion after unilaterally declaring Dash is "overpaying" for Nakamoto Consensus PoW security. In 2019, Dash's long-awaited Evolution release Open House featured no actual product demo as Liz's embarrassingly cringe EvoNet slideshow openly annouced Evolution has devolved into a Zero-Calorie Nothingburger with Vaporware Fries and Lite Ketchup. In 2019, Dash's established coinbase reward allocation and PoW/PoSe consensus mechanism degenerated into a discussion of which Calvinhash Protocol would fix Dash's massive technical and cultural debt problems, thereby making its Number Go Up.
 Calvinhash is a protocol invented by Evan at Dash Labs during an especially intense and lavishly provisioned Psytrance party "research" experience/experiment. Calvinhash has no rules; the miners, stakers, and Instamined DCG Masternodes make up their own rules as they go along, ensureing no Calvinhash proof-of-work, block size limit, consensus mechanism, or block reward is like another.
A signed version of this message can be found here https://pastebin.com/Lp5Djs5R Hello. I am the BearWhale. After a series of bad experiences with the banking system, I invested most of my life savings into bitcoin when the price was fairly low, around $8. For years I was a HODLer. I was holding when Trendon Shavers ripped everyone off. I was holding when the price was over a thousand, and I held after MtGox imploded. I believe strongly in Bitcoin’s decentralized promise of displacing immoral national currencies. The price kept drifting downwards until finally at a little over $300 I had enough. I sold off everything, based on an accumulation of information I gathered mostly from social media such as bitcointalk.org and reddit:
The block size limit of 1MB was a threat to bitcoin’s future
“Satoshi’s vision” was unlimited block sizes
Gavin was ousted by a cabal of self-interested engineers, a.k.a. “Blockstream”
Blockstream took control of bitcoin’s source code repository
Theymos colluded with Blockstream to censor block size increase discussions
The subreddit bitcoin heavily censored block size increase discussions
Blockstream wanted the block size low to promote its proprietary Lightning Network
Gregory Maxwell was a bad actor and Luke-Jr was a religious nut
The market agreed with the above, leading to the then-decline in price towards $300
At this point I should state that I am a highly technical person. I understand all of the math behind the bitcoin whitepaper and the software that powers it. Although, I am not a security expert nor am I a cypherpunk - only a little experience in the type of adversarial thinking necessary to be a competent steward of the technology. I don’t regret selling, as I made an enormous profit. The decision was a rational one based on available information. However, in 2017 I went all-in on bitcoin again and here’s why: None of the supposed facts which motivated my decision to sell were correct. It was all a carefully crafted and funded disinformation campaign launched by Roger Ver and his cronies, perhaps Jihan Wu, to discourage improvements to the bitcoin protocol to achieve financial gain at the expense of the community. Once I recognized the moves to discredit the core developers for what it was, a covertly operated smear campaign fought on social media, funded by enormous enrichment from bitcoin, carried out with sock puppets and appeals to emotion, I looked at bitcoin and the greater community again with a more critical eye and I came to the following conclusions:
Bitcoin is working great: look at the fees people are willing to pay
Resistance to poorly thought out protocol changes is a feature not a bug
Core developers are highly competent, from reading the mailing list
SegWit is incredibly well engineered to create the least network disruption
The subreddit btc is filled with negativity and meaningless attack
Roger Ver is a con man who uses his bitcoin.com domain to push his agenda
Bitcoin mining is centralized due to Bitmain’s temporary monopoly on retail hardware
ASICBoost is an exploit which has broken some economic incentives of bitcoin
Absent Bitmain, bitcoin the currency is far superior to altcoins
Although I am of course an adult fully responsible for my decisions, I want to make it clear that Roger Ver’s agenda was successful at convincing me that bitcoin had a “governance crisis” and was at risk of being overtaken by altcoins. My reason for this open letter s simple: I want the community to know that I fully support the core developers. I am strongly in favor of UASF as a mechanism for liminating the centralizing effect of miner control illusions. I support SegWit as a sensible technology for moving Bitcoin forward. I reject a block-size increase hard fork at the present time. I reject a phony “compromise.” And I especially resent and reject a consortium of suits coming to an “agreement” on what source-code base will be named “bitcoin” without that code base being thoroughly vetted over a suitable long time-frame by industry professionals. Those industry professionals include Gregory Maxwell and most of the people who participate regularly on the bitcoin developers mailing list and contribute pull requests to the bitcoin-core repository. tl;dr; I am the BearWhale: I sold Bitcoin for the wrong reasons, and now I am all-in and long bitcoin again.
I feel like a war-torn vet in a room full of new recruits.
I've been in cryptos since 2011. I know some have been here longer. Respect to you all. tl;dr "I've seen some shit." The company I originally bought my bitcoins from (for $10, biting my nails at a Walmart customer service counter), BitInstant, was shut down and it's founder was jailed. I bought mining hardware through Butterfly Labs. I didn't receive my miners till it was too late, and I was never able to recoup my cost. The company was shut down and they reached a settlement with the FTC. I managed to get my remaining coins out of Mt Gox shortly before it too went belly-up, its founder charged with embezzlement. I perused the Silk Road before it was shut down and Ross Ulbricht was imprisoned. (I never bought drugs; only found the site to be to be an incredible experiment in freedom.) Although I did not participate, I was there when Bitfinex was hacked, and when ether forked from DAO. And on, and on, and on... I've seen bubbles come and go. I've seen diarrhea-inducing volatility. I've abandoned all sense of price normalcy. I was literally there watching my screen when the BearWhale was slain. I've hodled. I know what it means to be "gentlemen." I know the difference between a Satoshi and a Dorian. I've seen Bitcoin die a hundred times. I've seen the Bitcoin community grow toxic over scaling. I've seen censorship, division, and alienation. I've seen some cryptos rise to be worthy contenders to Bitcoin's dominance, and I've seen others turn to dust. I've also made life-changing profits. These growing pains aren't going to cease any time soon. You don't survive as an early adopter in this space unless you stay on your toes and take the appropriate precautions. I can't stress this enough. The truth is, it's fucking stressful. I spend hours and hours researching and worrying about what I should do. Just last night I dreamt our house burned down and I lost everything. Not just that, but "loose lips sink ships" so to speak. Sometimes I think I should just shut up about it all. But I ain't done riding this wave. It's moon or bust. And I'm proud to be a part of the cryptocurrency community.
The fact a Mt. Gox selloff and Silk Road old wallet selloff crashed the market means Bitcoin suffers from the very thing it swears to destroy: centralization.
The fact that 3% of all Bitcoin wallets hold over 97% of all the Bitcoins should be a red fucking flag to any potential investor. And three times we've had this affect the price negatively. First was the Bearwhale who said he would crash the price 90%, and did it. Then we've had the Mt. Gox trustee selloff. And now we've had the old Silk Road wallet whale sell off. What's next? Satoshi wallets move one Bitcoin and everyone panics? This is beyond reasonable. The tech is "solidy" (can't forget those 50$ fees now can we) but the way its shaped is nothing but a piramid scheme where any of the old guys can fuck every single new guy and buy back in at a better price.
Where Art Thou, Bullwhale? Or, Why I Am Disappointed in the Markets Lately
I have to say, I'm a bit disappointed in the markets lately. In order to be able to say that here, though, I'll have to include a paragraph or two's worth of disclaimers throughout to head off some of the most popular retorts. Please, allow me to elucidate, and in the process indulge in a lazy Sunday thought experiment: I'm disappointed, not because the Bearwhale entity is back (after smartly waiting for the market to unwind some pent-up bullish exuberance), but mainly because the market isn't doing a damn thing about it. Again. I've bemoaned this situation in the past, but I don't think I clarified my views well enough. If I may, I'd like to take another shot: The Bearwhale's strength seems to be that that their actions, when present, serve to either establish or reinforce the prevailing downtrend. That trend is then followed by the herd, who have been conditioned so many times that "the trend is their friend" that most don't even think twice about it. While this seems to be the main feedback loop that the Bearwhale relies on, the downtrend is also further exacerbated by the constant selling pressure from miners, as well as hodlers loaning their BTC out for crumbs (not realizing that their collective actions serve to devalue their holdings way more than those crumbs they receive in return). While the Bearwhale entity's goals are nearly impossible to determine with any confidence, their tactics are certainly to be admired. They are taking great advantage of some very powerful market forces—the reflexivity of the market, combined with the "tragedy of the commons" inherent in two areas: mining, and availability of margin—to effectively corner the market downwards for their benefit. To be clear: this isn't the part I'm disappointed in, though. The fact that they're back and are continuing doesn't surprise me, either, given not only that they've been doing it so effectively and for so long, but also that exactly this sort of behavior was predicted almost three years ago:
Bitcoin takes the monetary system back essentially a hundred years. We know how to beat that system. In fact, we know how to nuke it for profit. Bitcoin is volatile, inherently deflationary and has no lender of last resort. Cornering and squeezing would work well - they use mass in a finite trading space. Modern predatory algos [...] would rapidly wreak havoc.
So, while I am weary of the effects of the Bearwhale's actions this year, I am neither disappointed nor surprised by them. After all, as Right_In-The-Pussy astutely pointed out, "free market something something". What I am disappointed by, though, is that no entity or entities in this glorious free market, throughout all this time, have deemed the situation worthy of responding by putting the screws to the Bearwhale in return. (At this point, a commotion is heard as a hundred traders rush to leave comments filled with scathing retorts of smart-assery.) Now, hear me out here, folks. Let's first take a step back, and examine the situation at large: If we surmise that the Bearwhale operates roughly as laid out above (and more or less as speculated throughout this forum) it is probably fairly safe to assume that "the beatings will continue until morale improves"; that is, that they will probably keep up their dumping scheme unless and until the market pushes back strongly enough to convince them that the support is no longer worth fighting at that level. This is a grim prospect for Bitcoin, because the longer this keeps up and the lower we go, the less likely it will seem to be that the Bearwhale is benevolent (i.e. manipulating out of self-interest or related motives, but ultimately interested in and aligned with Bitcoin's long-term success). It becomes exceedingly likely that they are purely profit-driven, and will have no qualms about trying to drive the price straight into the ground. As has been noted many times on this forum and elsewhere, this can and will wreak havoc on the entire ecosystem: mining, merchants, VC investments, adoption, exchanges...you name it. Which is why, when the Bearwhale continued to push the market downwards into the lower $300s and beyond (with more and more traders gleefully shorting alongside them), I posted this:
It's really less about profit, and more about the ratio of profit vs. progress. These days, there's too much of the former going on at the expense of the latter, and nobody seems too worried about offing the golden goose in the process.
At these price levels, we are starting to exceed certain tolerances; Bitcoin may be Honey Badger, but Honey Badger can't continue to lose this much blood without feeling some very negative long-term effects. As we continue to slide, Bitcoin's prospects (first growth, then viability in general) increasingly come into question. So, the question that should be on the mind of all Bitcoin faithful is: what can be done about this? The situation is grim: hodlers are stuffed to the gills and despondent, miners are only as faithful as the protocol forces them to be (100 blocks), margin trading is toothpaste that can't be put back in the tube, and the ten-month downtrend is a positive feedback loop that almost ceaselessly continues to spread pain and suffering....
Enter the Bullwhale: the Hero We Don't Deserve, but the One We Need Right Now
Ok, fine...we don't need a Bullwhale—the markets at large could (and probably eventually will) coalesce like a school of fish around some "way too low" price point, establish unyielding support, and send a resounding message (as happened recently at $300). In the meantime, we could all wait around and see how low the Bearwhale will take us, and what sorts of very unfortunate things happen in the interim as a result. One way or another, Bitcoin will most likely survive...and the scars will add character, right? But gosh, we certainly could use a Bullwhale's help here. We could use some now more than ever, but really, we needed one ever since the Bearwhale got started putting their boot to the market's neck earlier this year. Hell, a Bullwhale's job would have been much easier back then—having at their disposal a vast army of bubble believers and lunar lunatics which has since then gradually eroded. In the interim, bulls have not just been decimated, but almost put on the endangered species list at this point. So, who could save Bitcoin from the beatings and turn the market around? A variety of actors could step in, and like the Bearwhale, the most important factor is the scale at which they can operate—their intentions could be benevolent, selfish, or a combination; it doesn't so much matter, as long as the effected direction is up. This could be someone from the idealogical crowd like Byrne & Co., wanting to stick it to the entrenched market establishment; maybe Soros, wanting to further an Open Society (and in the process, lending more credence to his theories of fallibility and reflexivity); or Draper, the Winklevii, Silbert, et. al., wanting to protect their investments and further their Bitcoin-related aspirations; or perhaps one or more early adopters with some choice connections for fiat liquidity, weary of watching their beloved protocol get beat down and their holdings depreciate. It could be an entity with potentially mixed motivations...like Google, for example: they could adopt Bitcoin in a flash and spark a rally, positioning themselves as the market leader of an open ecosystem of the kind that they like, while also raking in a boatload of money in the process. Paypal, Amazon, etc. could make similar plays, though I suspect they're less likely to do so. Or, it could be an actor every bit as selfish as the Bearwhale entity—just a mirror image of them. Someone who realizes that there's more to be made in the long term supporting Bitcoin's growth rather than sabotaging it. After all, the powerful market mechanics harnessed by the Bearwhale can be harnessed equally well by a Bullwhale. Those that have been around long enough know what it looks like when these kinds of forces finally turn around. All it takes is a convincing reversal on high volume (like we had at $300), followed up by some continued encouragement (which we didn't have, in turn giving the Bearwhale the encouragement they needed to start messing around again). If timed right, not much encouragement is even needed; just enough to convince the market that the Bearwhale has been neutered. How? Send some chunky wires to all the major exchanges, and then simply wait to reverse the playbook on them. 400 BTC is dumped in a minute? Buy up 600 the next. 800 follows, ten minutes later? Enter a 2,000 BTC market buy. How long until the Bearwhale gets the message? And even if they don't, more critically: how long until the market does? Traders may be hard to convince at first—and the skepticism can't be blamed at this point, given how long this has been allowed to drag on. But again, a few plays straight from the Bearwhale's playbook (but reversed) will do the trick: a couple of three- or four-digit BTC buys in the morning, two or three hours apart...a couple more buys of similar magnitude in the evening...and some salubrious support in the meantime—say, a 300 BTC wall, with another 1,000 not far behind it?—will turn bears into bulls faster than you can say "irrational exuberance." The first-mover advantage will be massive. Sooner than one might think, the artificial trend will have morphed into a real one. Daily Discussions will once again be filled with traders quibbling about whether $3k or $8k will me a more appropriate cash-out point in the oncoming bubble. Miner selling will dry up, and margin longs will break the stratosphere. Potential Bearwhale-like attacks just need to be quickly countered for a little while longer, and inevitably rabid, foaming-at-the-mouth FOMO will take over, a rush of new participants will flood in...and, well, we know what happens from there. At this point in this and any related scenario, it would appear that the ceiling becomes a lot higher than the floor; that is, that we'd likely go up a lot higher than we could have ever possibly gone down (about $350, as of this writing). So...why hasn't it happened? Where art thou, Bullwhale? I am disappointed by thine absence. As always, constructive discussion is welcomed and appreciated.
Shorting alts seems to be a much more reasonable and profitable. I don't see why they won't get totally obliterated in a couple of months.
* extra "a" in title, sorry So all crypto land is going down... question is when. Some think this is imminent, others think it's a couple of months away. Question is, since all altcoins are quite useless and shitty anyway, wouldn't it be way more profitable to short alts and wait for them to crack for good instead of shorting bitcoin? I mean, it's quite obvious they're all btc driven, and they also outperform BTC in both gains and losses. But at least Bitcoin has a leg to stand on, it has stood the test of time and all previous crashes. It has some limited use even and is somewhat accepted as payment. There is a shy BTC ecosystem in place. Everyone and their grandma knows about Bitcoin. So basically it has some sort of underlying value and purpose. It might get @2k or even @1k but it's highly unlikely it will get dumped further. Maybe 500$ lowest. Shorting bitcoin @5-7k range will get you an average of a 4k drop or 70-80% drop. Now what about alts? LTC, which is a very old coin, dropped from 50$ to almost 1$ after the 2013 bubble. During the dead phase, it averaged 3$, that's 6% of it's 2013 ATH. In comparison, BTC tanked to an average of 250-300, which was 20% of it's ATH. And back in it's days LTC was quite a solid coin, with almost 2? years traded since it's launch. In that time, it was just one of the very few coins in circulation Basically, BTC got beaten down in 2014 but alts got obliterated. Now, we have a ridiculous number of alts, all gained because they follow bitcoin. Most were next to 0 prior to the 2017 bubble. They were created, tanked for a while and just went to the moon for no other reason than btc going there. https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/ Remember how terrible the sentiment was past the 2013 bubble and how just about anyone gave up on bitcoin by 2015, which was THE dominant coin by a huge margin. Remember the bearwhale. Why would anyone even think of holding on to irrelevant shitcoins?
I've been hodling and adding to my stash since 2012. Went through the Gox debacle, Silk Road, inputs.io, slaying of the bearwhale, BitLicense, ETF, and countless ups and downs. In the beginning, I tried trading on Gox, but always got lost in the FUD, emotion what I began to realize was manipulation. And I realized that I had no skill in playing that game. Except one skill. I had faith based on a deep understanding of what bitcoin was. I read the whitepaper. I understood the implications and bought in. (Thank you Orlin Grabbe, RIP) So I bought more. I bought in through dwolla/Gox, bit-instant/ZipZap, localbitcoins, etc. And I kept buying. I mixed my coins (losing a chunk to Coinlender), traded gold for coins on Agora, and kept building my hodlings while putting them in cold encrypted storage. Never sell was my motto, and I watched what was about a $20K gamble/investment grow to much much more. Enough to retire. I watched the price constantly. Wake up at night, check the price. Wake up in the morning, check the price. And I read all of the news, the blogs, reddit (both /btc and /bitcoin, and others). I invested my Roth in GBTC. My wife's as well. I told my mainstream friends about bitcoin. All who told me I was crazy. Maybe a little I admitted. Satoshi said it would either be worth 0 or be very valuable. I chose to believe the latter. But recently I got discouraged. The civil war was real. Both sides bloodied, with hidden agendas following hidden money. Sock puppets manipulating opinion, threats by miners to fork and jump ship. Doom and gloom. Price crashes, big bear predictions, doom is nigh! And I almost gave up. Almost imported my cold coins to sell. Then I saw through the fog of war. Bitcoin is anti-fragile. ANTI-FRAGILE. Weak hands sell. Traders and whales sell/buy. Manipulators buy/sell. Maybe after the next halving, I'll sell. But not now. I'll continue to hodl. Maybe even buy some more. Just thought I'd share.
On this day 4 years ago (Oct 6th 2014), when the price of Bitcoin was near US$330~, an anonymous Bitcoin trader placed an order on Bitstamp to sell 30,000 Bitcoins at $300 (US$9mn). The chart from… A good example of this is Bitcoin‘s downturn at the start of 2018. It’s important not to confuse a bear market with a price correction. A bear market is a sustained period of time ... Hello. I am the BearWhale. After a series of bad experiences with the banking system, I invested most of my life savings into bitcoin when the price was fairly low, around $8. For years I was a HODLer. I was holding when Trendon Shavers ripped everyone off. I was holding when the price was over a thousand, and I held after MtGox imploded. I ... The most profitable trader on Bitfinex disappeared after the Bitcoin price hit $10K in a stunning 150% rally since the Black Thursday crash. The biggest whale on Bitfinex known to the Bitcoin community as Joe007 vanished, as the price of the top-ranked cryptocurrency by market capitalization hit $10,000.Joe007 left with a farewell letter on May 7 on Twitter—which can no longer be seen after ... BearWhale Bitcoin Transaction is Filled by Bitcoin Exchange, October 6, 2014: $387.40 Bitcoin markets were rocked by one of the largest ‘sell’ orders in bitcoin history when an unknown trader placed nearly 30,000 BTC for sale on Bitstamp at a limit price of $300.
On the 6th of October 2014 an incursion occured between the bulls and the bears that saw bitcoins now infamous Bear Whale emerge. This is the slaying of Bitcoin's Bear Whale. Follow Me https ... In this video, I do some quick technical analysis using my custom fib retracement tool. If you would like some more information on how to get this tool yourself send me an email because it's ... The Bitcoin Group #51 - Slaying the BearWhale, $50M Funding, Bit License and Saving Journalism World Crypto Network. Loading... Unsubscribe from World Crypto Network? Cancel Unsubscribe. Working ... The slaying of bearwhale! 30k BTC sell order being chewed through! ... Traders go NUTS during recent Bitcoin price surge [pit audio ] - Duration: 2:04. Jim btc 10,450 views. 2:04. Sawcruhteez ... The BearWhales are controlling the Bitcoin price, and thus the entire crypto markets. They want the price of Bitcoin to keep going down, but the Bitcoin bulls are fightning back, swallowing up ...