Bitcoin price index, chart and news WorldCoinIndex

Cost to mine 1 Bitcoin is now $14,000 USD. "Bitcoin Price Chart Fractal Seen in 2019 Hints at $14K Within Months". I bet BTC price ascends to $14,000 in next 30 days! NewYorkCoin (NYC) is a faster, no fee version of Litecoin since 2014! Official New York Coin nycoin.net | newyorkcoin.net

Cost to mine 1 Bitcoin is now $14,000 USD. submitted by hivewalletvictim to NewYorkCoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Huge Bull Signal on 1-Month Chart

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Huge Bull Signal on 1-Month Chart submitted by n4bb to CoinPath [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Huge Bull Signal on 1-Month Chart

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Huge Bull Signal on 1-Month Chart submitted by Ranzware to BitNewsLive [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Huge Bull Signal on 1-Month Chart

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Huge Bull Signal on 1-Month Chart submitted by remivee to tribetica [link] [comments]

[ANN] Coin Cadence Bitcoin Price Index Releases 1 Month Historical Price Chart

[ANN] Coin Cadence Bitcoin Price Index Releases 1 Month Historical Price Chart submitted by CoinCadence to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet

Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots.
A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC).
Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea.
When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust.
However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:

Is Bitcoin money?

No.
Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves:
1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own.
As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get.
You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there?
2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile.
If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point:
3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away.
For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast.
On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC
While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad.
One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy.
If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due.
Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.

BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in

Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense.
Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run.
See here
Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well.
Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money.
Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph
The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand.
Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price
Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control.
It's also a national security risk...
The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa
In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca.
He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade.
This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.

Currencies are based on trust

Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged?
The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president.
People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all.
It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board.
For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency
This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government."
The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.

BTC is not gold

Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value.
How do we know that?
Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan.
Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well.
Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties:
First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment.
Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials.
Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans.
It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods.
To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that.
On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.

BTC is really risky

One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds.
But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:

Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient

Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science.
That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale.
The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
submitted by VodkaHaze to badeconomics [link] [comments]

The Reddit Bake-Off, Reddit-wide tokenization, and where NANO fits in the future of digital exchange.

I first learned about Bitcoin from a person I met at an interview in late 2017. My primary interest was Bitcoin, but at the time I saw how much profit early Ethereum adopters yielded and I envied them for finding such a successful project in its early stages. My first investment in cryptocurrency was Litecoin. I was attracted to the fact that, although it was essentially the same as Bitcoin, it was faster and slightly less expensive. I dove in and I got rekt.
As time went on I began to do research on different coins. I found Binance and started exploring alts. I'd look at the Binance chart, pick a coin, Google it, read their whitepaper (since I didn't understand the code, eventually I just judged a whitepaper by its aesthetic), and ultimately I would end up on their subreddit. That's how I found CryptoCurrency.
At some point in my journey, a new wave of confidence entered the market. People started talking in the Daily about a new coin that appeared on some weird exchange whose named I had never heard. They said it was instant and free and that it was the absolute epitome of what Bitcoin was meant to be.
Countless users suggested this coin would absorb the entire market cap of Bitcoin.
Its name was strange, RaiBlocks (XRB). I had bought in around $20 at the time the price went from $0-38 in a couple of weeks. Everyone was enthusiastic about the bull run, but it was the technology and its potential for worldwide application that people were excited about most.
Welp, some bad press and a couple of years later and we are now in the depths of obscurity and any mention of NANO in the Daily on CryptoCurrency, the same sub that birthed its popularity in the first place, is chastised. I sadly watched as NANO lost its clout and with it its price. Eventually, BrainBlocks died, which was my favorite project of all, and I exited completely. I even removed NANO from my watchlists because I knew if I saw it I would buy back in.
NANO fell off my radar entirely for about 4 months while I dove head first into DeFi. However, last night I saw the charts looking favorable for a breakout, so I re-entered. Then today as Bitcoin pumped and every other alt dumped, NANO miraculously jumped. I figured the trading bots still oddly tie NANO to Bitcoin and after seeing NANO as the only successful coin in a sea of red, I came back. I also thought maybe the developers knew something we didn't, and the price was increasing before something big was about to happen, but that's just wishful thinking.
Right now, the most exciting corner of the cryptocurrency space is far and away the fact that Reddit is now heavily involved in the future of cryptocurrency integration:
  1. The Great Reddit Scaling Bake-Off is a competition hosted by Reddit to help scale Ethereum well enough to efficiently manage the complete tokenization of Reddit.
  2. As an experiment, Reddit has begun given tokens to posters/commenters at two subreddits for upvoted content: Moons and Bricks at CryptoCurrency and FortNiteBR, respectively.
A user was even able to bridge Moons and Bricks to equivalent tokens on the xDai Network (xMOON and xBRICK), and are literally tradable. For example, I earned 425 moons last month and I bridged them to xMOON and traded them for ETH on Honeyswap. I earned ERC-20 tokens from Reddit, bridged them to another network, and sold them. This, ladies and gentlemen, is not only the beginning of the tokenization of Reddit. This is going to be the beginning of tokenization of everything.
NANO is faster and feeless. An infinite number of blockchains can be created on the block lattice. A community member even generated a Moons to NANO converter, right?
My question is: Is it possible for NANO to bridge ERC-20 and ERC-677 tokens from the Ethereum network to NANO sidechain equivalents. Fore example, NANOETH, NANOLINK, etc.? Why can't NANO participate in the Bake-Off and develop a protocol that bridges NANO and other tokens via sidechains? Is it possible to create a token for every single subreddit and have them run simultaneosly the NANO network? Why isn't NANO in the discussion for this and why haven't we entered the Bake-Off? Is this not the best use case for NANO and the best place to implement the protocol?
To be quite honest, I am back because I think NANO will succeed in some way and I imagine the developers have a plan for marketing with the next hype wave in cryptocurrency. However, if that is not the case, then this project is missing a serious opportunity to become a part of perhaps the single most important incoming disruptor in the cryptocurrency space and economics, err, soon-to-be tokenomics of our society.
People once thought this coin would absorb the entire market cap of Bitcoin, but it's been 3 years and other projects have gained traction and now the spotlight is on Ethereum. Yes, there will never be another coin as fast or as free as NANO, but there needs to actually be use for it for it to become valuable and have a place in the future.
Thanks for reading!
tl;dr - Reddit is tokenizing all subreddits and is actively hosting a competition in order to try to find the solution to Ethereum scaling, called the Bake-Off. I want to know if it is possible for NANO to participate in the Reddit Bake-Off and use its protocol to tokenize Reddit.
submitted by fatal_music to nanocurrency [link] [comments]

There are signs that a major Bitcoin miner (who was liquidating stored Bitcoins to keep power going) has officially gone busto.

Here you see major hash decline:
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate
Here you can see '1st spends' of Bitcoin
https://terminal.bytetree.com/bitcoin
(I can't verify the accuracy of this).
I've been watching 1st spends a while, averaging like 15,000 more Bitcoins spent than mined for the last year. That's like $180 Mil.
First spends can only be done by miners. Spending more than mined basically means they are spending from old blocks (like blocks that paid out 50 BTC, 25 BTC, 12.5 BTC etc).
There is some bonus value to first spend coins that I don't quite understand, but basically you get 10% or 20% more than the Bitcoin value when you spend them, because they are completely untraceable or something like that. You can sort of trace Bitcoins, but it's very, very hard to trace newly mined Bitcoins until they are spent and linked up with other assets of said individual.
So over the last year, someone has been liquidating these reserve Bitcoins, while hash power of Bitcoin has gone up like double from where it was and payouts have fallen in half, so mining is paying like 25% of what it was this time last year, when BTC was $10k (presuming you stay on old equipment, etc.).
I could imagine a situation where a BTC bull holds these first spend coins for a long time, planning on a rapid price jump which takes a long time to materialize. And then combine that with he $3.5k Corona / Oil dip, which basically forced liquidated everyone on margin position (which Bitcoin bulls tend to do), and I could see a scenario where someone had a wonderfully huge Bitcoin position, and mining op, and then got all their free coins liquidated by margin call, and spent their '1st spend' coins to keep ops going, hoping for rapid price acceleration.
This is all conjecture but I've been expecting something like this to happen. Maybe it's just a blip, and I'm totally wrong, and hash climbs back up, but if it stays down and the BTC price goes up, then I'm thinking a miner went busto, who had be applying $10's of Millions of sell pressure monthly onto the system.
submitted by Bitcoin1776 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Newcomers FAQ - Please read!

Welcome to the /Bitcoin Sticky FAQ

You've probably been hearing a lot about Bitcoin recently and are wondering what's the big deal? Most of your questions should be answered by the resources below but if you have additional questions feel free to ask them in the comments.
It all started with the release of the release of Satoshi Nakamoto's whitepaper however that will probably go over the head of most readers so we recommend the following videos for a good starting point for understanding how bitcoin works and a little about its long term potential:
Some other great resources include Lopp.net, the Princeton crypto series and James D'Angelo's Bitcoin 101 Blackboard series.
Some excellent writing on Bitcoin's value proposition and future can be found at the Satoshi Nakamoto Institute.
Some Bitcoin statistics can be found here and here. Developer resources can be found here. Peer-reviewed research papers can be found here.
Potential upcoming protocol improvements and scaling resources here and here.
The number of times Bitcoin was declared dead by the media can be found here (LOL!)

Key properties of Bitcoin

Where can I buy bitcoins?

Bitcoin.org and BuyBitcoinWorldwide.com are helpful sites for beginners. You can buy or sell any amount of bitcoin (even just a few dollars worth) and there are several easy methods to purchase bitcoin with cash, credit card or bank transfer. Some of the more popular resources are below, also check out the bitcoinity exchange resources for a larger list of options for purchases.
Here is a listing of local ATMs. If you would like your paycheck automatically converted to bitcoin use Bitwage.
Note: Bitcoins are valued at whatever market price people are willing to pay for them in balancing act of supply vs demand. Unlike traditional markets, bitcoin markets operate 24 hours per day, 365 days per year. Preev is a useful site that that shows how much various denominations of bitcoin are worth in different currencies. Alternatively you can just Google "1 bitcoin in (your local currency)".

Securing your bitcoins

With bitcoin you can "Be your own bank" and personally secure your bitcoins OR you can use third party companies aka "Bitcoin banks" which will hold the bitcoins for you.
Note: For increased security, use Two Factor Authentication (2FA) everywhere it is offered, including email!
2FA requires a second confirmation code to access your account making it much harder for thieves to gain access. Google Authenticator and Authy are the two most popular 2FA services, download links are below. Make sure you create backups of your 2FA codes.
Google Auth Authy OTP Auth
Android Android N/A
iOS iOS iOS

Watch out for scams

As mentioned above, Bitcoin is decentralized, which by definition means there is no official website or Twitter handle or spokesperson or CEO. However, all money attracts thieves. This combination unfortunately results in scammers running official sounding names or pretending to be an authority on YouTube or social media. Many scammers throughout the years have claimed to be the inventor of Bitcoin. Websites like bitcoin(dot)com and the btc subreddit are active scams. Almost all altcoins (shitcoins) are marketed heavily with big promises but are really just designed to separate you from your bitcoin. So be careful: any resource, including all linked in this document, may in the future turn evil. Don't trust, verify. Also as they say in our community "Not your keys, not your coins".

Where can I spend bitcoins?

Check out spendabit or bitcoin directory for millions of merchant options. Also you can spend bitcoin anywhere visa is accepted with bitcoin debit cards such as the CashApp card. Some other useful site are listed below.
Store Product
Gyft Gift cards for hundreds of retailers including Amazon, Target, Walmart, Starbucks, Whole Foods, CVS, Lowes, Home Depot, iTunes, Best Buy, Sears, Kohls, eBay, GameStop, etc.
Spendabit, Overstock and The Bitcoin Directory Retail shopping with millions of results
ShakePay Generate one time use Visa cards in seconds
NewEgg and Dell For all your electronics needs
Bitwa.la, Coinbills, Piixpay, Bitbill.eu, Bylls, Coins.ph, Bitrefill, LivingRoomofSatoshi, Coinsfer, and more Bill payment
Menufy, Takeaway and Thuisbezorgd NL Takeout delivered to your door
Expedia, Cheapair, Destinia, Abitsky, SkyTours, the Travel category on Gyft and 9flats For when you need to get away
Cryptostorm, Mullvad, and PIA VPN services
Namecheap, Porkbun Domain name registration
Stampnik Discounted USPS Priority, Express, First-Class mail postage
Coinmap and AirBitz are helpful to find local businesses accepting bitcoins. A good resource for UK residents is at wheretospendbitcoins.co.uk.
There are also lots of charities which accept bitcoin donations.

Merchant Resources

There are several benefits to accepting bitcoin as a payment option if you are a merchant;
If you are interested in accepting bitcoin as a payment method, there are several options available;

Can I mine bitcoin?

Mining bitcoins can be a fun learning experience, but be aware that you will most likely operate at a loss. Newcomers are often advised to stay away from mining unless they are only interested in it as a hobby similar to folding at home. If you want to learn more about mining you can read more here. Still have mining questions? The crew at /BitcoinMining would be happy to help you out.
If you want to contribute to the bitcoin network by hosting the blockchain and propagating transactions you can run a full node using this setup guide. If you would prefer to keep it simple there are several good options. You can view the global node distribution here.

Earning bitcoins

Just like any other form of money, you can also earn bitcoins by being paid to do a job.
Site Description
WorkingForBitcoins, Bitwage, Cryptogrind, Coinality, Bitgigs, /Jobs4Bitcoins, BitforTip, Rein Project Freelancing
Lolli Earn bitcoin when you shop online!
OpenBazaar, Purse.io, Bitify, /Bitmarket, 21 Market Marketplaces
/GirlsGoneBitcoin NSFW Adult services
A-ads, Coinzilla.io Advertising
You can also earn bitcoins by participating as a market maker on JoinMarket by allowing users to perform CoinJoin transactions with your bitcoins for a small fee (requires you to already have some bitcoins.

Bitcoin-Related Projects

The following is a short list of ongoing projects that might be worth taking a look at if you are interested in current development in the bitcoin space.
Project Description
Lightning Network Second layer scaling
Blockstream, Rootstock and Drivechain Sidechains
Hivemind and Augur Prediction markets
Tierion and Factom Records & Titles on the blockchain
BitMarkets, DropZone, Beaver and Open Bazaar Decentralized markets
JoinMarket and Wasabi Wallet CoinJoin implementation
Coinffeine and Bisq Decentralized bitcoin exchanges
Keybase Identity & Reputation management
Abra Global P2P money transmitter network
Bitcore Open source Bitcoin javascript library

Bitcoin Units

One Bitcoin is quite large (hundreds of £/$/€) so people often deal in smaller units. The most common subunits are listed below:
Unit Symbol Value Info
bitcoin BTC 1 bitcoin one bitcoin is equal to 100 million satoshis
millibitcoin mBTC 1,000 per bitcoin used as default unit in recent Electrum wallet releases
bit bit 1,000,000 per bitcoin colloquial "slang" term for microbitcoin (μBTC)
satoshi sat 100,000,000 per bitcoin smallest unit in bitcoin, named after the inventor
For example, assuming an arbitrary exchange rate of $10000 for one Bitcoin, a $10 meal would equal:
For more information check out the Bitcoin units wiki.
Still have questions? Feel free to ask in the comments below or stick around for our weekly Mentor Monday thread. If you decide to post a question in /Bitcoin, please use the search bar to see if it has been answered before, and remember to follow the community rules outlined on the sidebar to receive a better response. The mods are busy helping manage our community so please do not message them unless you notice problems with the functionality of the subreddit.
Note: This is a community created FAQ. If you notice anything missing from the FAQ or that requires clarification you can edit it here and it will be included in the next revision pending approval.
Welcome to the Bitcoin community and the new decentralized economy!
submitted by BitcoinFan7 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Here is a Market Recap for today Thurs, Oct 8. Please enjoy!

PsychoMarket Recap - Thursday, October 8, 2020
Stocks rose again today, extending yesterday’s frankly unexpected gains, with the major benchmarks opening at their highest levels in about a month. Market participants digested a new round of jobless claims, dimming hopes of stimulus, even for stand-alone bills, and progress in Covid-19 therapeutics following Pres. Trump’s discharge from the hospital.
The Nasdaq (QQQ) finished the day 0.54% up. The S&P (SPY) led the day, up 0.85% and the Dow (DIA) finished 0.48% up.
Today, the Labor Department released their weekly jobless claims report. There were 840,000 additional first-time jobless claims this week, slightly above the 820,000 prediction of analysts. While 840,000 is the lowest level since March, jobless claims have stagnated the past month, a sign of slowing economic recovery. Continuing claims, which are the number of people who have already filed an initial claim and who have experienced a week of unemployment and then filed a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment, fell below 11 million, dropping almost 1 million compared to the week before. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said, “The decline in continuing claims is welcome, but initial claims offer a better read on the real-time state of the labor market, and the downward trend has stalled, more or less.”
According to CNBC, there are still 25.5 million workers claiming some form of unemployment benefits, according to totals through Sept. 19. More than half that total, or about 13.4 million, comes from those collecting under pandemic-related programs set up for those who normally wouldn’t be eligible, showing the toll the pandemic has put on the labor market.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi further curbed expectations that any form of stimulus will be unleashed before the November election. Today, in response to a bill designed to provide relief to the airline industry, Pelosi said, “There is no stand-alone bill without a bigger bill.” In other words, she opposes passing smaller, stand-alone stimulus bills in the absence of more comprehensive measures. Yesterday, after calling for his representatives to stop negotiations for overarching stimulus, Pres. Trump signaled he would support a smaller, targeted bill. In response to Trump’s recent tweets about stimulus, Ed Mills, policy analyst at Raymond James said, “It’s been the question of the day, as to why we got the tweets we got over the last 24 hours, the market reaction we got into [Tuesday’s] close, and then the rally.” Needless to say, the current market is hyper-responsive to the comments of Trump and other top officials.
Shares of Regeneron (REGN) jumped after the drugmaker said it had submitted a request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for emergency use authorization of its Covid-19 antibody treatment, which had been taken by President Donald Trump after his Covid-19 diagnosis. In a video on Twitter today, Pres. Trump openly endorsed the move saying “I took this medicine [during his stay at Walter Reed Hospital] and it was incredible.”
In other nice news, the World Trade Organization (WTO) announced that South Korea’s trade minister and the former Nigerian finance minister are the two finalists in the race to become the next director-general. This is the first time a woman will occupy the position of top leader in this organization.
Highlights
"Don't judge each day by the harvest you reap but by the seeds that you plant." -Robert Louis Stevenson
submitted by psychotrader00 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Some Bitcoin Analysts and Prediction Today and Yesterday & Why "It's not the Price, Dummy"

This is just for fun, I generally have no strong feelings toward bitcoin price (I'm just fundamentally against zero-sum get rich schemes). But today I decided to do a little bitcoin search in news.google.com and see what today's bulls were predicting in 2018. Side note, almost all of the news articles came from crypto sites. I tried my best to stay away from them. Farming magazine telling you agriculture is the future isn't exactly shocking.
To people who invest, please don't consider this as a prediction that price will fall. I'm not astute or smart enough to predict either way. The only possible use is to make sure you are more skeptic regarding predictions. Keep in mind, a rich CEO or consultant can lose 100 million and not really affect his life that much, but a 10k or 100k lose for some people can be devastating. And remember, some of these rich hedge managers don't believe their own bullshit, and hopefully, some of these quotes will emulate that.
(Note, I won't waste time linking them all, but by quoting them directly, it should be easy to google)
(another side note, I didn't purposely search out specific names. I went by the first names I came across, and only ignoring those that I couldn't find anything regarding crypto in past years)

Mike Novogratz

Present: Business Inside: Bitcoin is like 'digital gold' and won't be used the same as a traditional currency in at least 5 years, billionaire investor Mike Novogratz says
Past: On Nov, 2017, he said: "Bitcoin could ‘easily’ reach $40,000 by the end of 2018, hedge fund legend Novogratz says"
2018: "Michael Novogratz calls a bottom in cryptocurrencies" (it wasn't)
Novogratz started a crypto funding in 2018. First 9 months "Mike Novogratz’s Crypto Trading Desk Lost $136 Million in Nine Months" (Bloomberg). Quarter 4: "Galaxy Digital Posts $32.9 Million in Net Loss for Q4 2019". Feb 2020 "Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital Slashes 15% Staff"

Raoul Pal

Present: "For Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, the bullish atmosphere had been reinforced, and further gains were more likely than ever.
“There are literally only two resistances left on the #bitcoin chart - 14,000 and then the old all-time high at 20,000,” he tweeted."
In a tweet today, he said, "Bitcoin is eating the world...
It has become a supermassive black hole that is sucking in everything around it and destroying it. This narrative is only going to grow over the next 18 months.
You see, gold is breaking down versus bitcoin...and gold investors will flip to BTC"
Past: 2014: "Put them in the same kind of equation we get a value of bitcoin and that value is a million dollars. Now, you'll never hear an analyst say this—but I don't mind this—I could be wrong by 90%, and it's still worth $100,000." (to be honest, that's a bit of an impressive prediction in 2014)
On the other hand, he probably didn't really believe his own prediction because in June, 2017 (when it was 2000 USD or so), he said: " “This is the most exponential move we have seen. I don’t know how far it goes, but I sold out last week… and I’ve [owned Bitcoin] since it was $200. Anything that moves exponentially, always [blows up].”"
In 2016, "This view brings Pal to the asset he favors most over the next year out of bonds, equities, currencies and commodities: the dollar."

---

Eh, that was just two. I was hoping to mention several people, but it appears not many people are actually making predictions anymore, and anyone mentioned are basically not big people so I couldn't find much on them regarding bitcoin before 2019.
So, the main thing I like to highlight are the analysts and such are going to make money whatever happens. Fund managers are playing with people's money and, as long as they are not involved in frauds, there is no real harm to them against wrong predictions. Generally, successful business people are successful because they were loud, confident, and were able to convince others that they had the right idea. Even when wrong, they bounce back. Most of us aren't like that.
Some bitcoiners come here to boast when price goes up, as if the increase in price is an indication that argument against bitcoin has been proven wrong. While some people here are fanatically anti-bitcoin, I am not one of those. I have nothing against people making money (why would I be upset that people I don't know around the world became wealthier??). But since bitcoin investing is by design a zero sum game, certain people will eventually lose, and it is most likely it is the people who were listening to predictions by experts that would ultimately be financially hurt, and not the experts making the predictions.
Crypto investing has been a platform where the average person works hard in his day to day life, and then brings the fruits of his labor into this field. The actual productive part of that person's life is the one outside crypto, where they had been productive for the community, and in exchange, they receive wages. Crypto investing's promise is for this wage to increase without the actual productivity. The concern is mainly that the result of all that labor will be misused by crypto "experts" who's own income (their labor) is directly linked to predictions on crypto.
The above paragraph is badly explained, but the main point is that the average person brings in outside money they worked hard for, while "experts" there is generally no outside money, crypto fund management or consulting itself is their job.
---
Money can be made, of course, but money being made isn't necessarily an argument for something. Bitcoin, and crypto, has for the past 1.5 decades still largely just about numbers going up. Google trend on "bitcoin" show top related queries being "bitcoin price", "bitcoin usd", "bitcoin usd price". When people come here when it hits a particular arbitrary price point thinking it's their gotcha moment, it actually just reinforces my argument that it is only about the price. Nothing in the history of human economy has ever lasted based only on the economic model of who you could resell it for at a higher price.
Even DeFi's smart contracts (as much as I could understand it) is about prices going up. It's like for these people the concept of contracts are based purely on money exchanging hands, and no actual task being done. Almost all contracts globally are based on specific productive tasks being done, such as employee contract, supplier contract, property contract, and so on. Only a tiny amount of it is based on "if this currency goes up, then give me that currency" contracts.
---
submitted by madali0 to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

Instacoin UK - Last Chance (up to end of Oct) to get a free £10 worth of Bitcoin (same day) for £100 Bitcoin purchase

Instacoin UK , a popular cryptocurrency exchange, are updating their referral scheme from 1st November 2020. The referral amount will be adjusted to a £5 bonus for any purchase over £50. Currently it is a £10 bonus for any purchase of £100 or over.
Instacoin UK is a website which allows you to purchase Bitcoin with your Visa / MasterCard or via a bank transfer. They have been around a while used by lots of beermoneyuk users already.
Instacoin UK are going to honor the £10 bonus scheme for any new customer signing that sign up and purchase £100 of Bitcoin or over until the end of the month. You get the free £10 worth of Bitcoin immediately after purchase! The whole process (including receiving your £100 back in your bank account) should take less than an hour.
The Process
Sign up via my referral link.
Referral link: https://instacoin.uk/ref?code=54C9787
£10 bonus
Non-refferal link: https://instacoin.uk/
No bonus

Steps:

  1. Sign up with the referral link above
  2. Verify your account (driver's licence, passport or gov issued I.D)
  3. Click buy at the top of the dashboard and select BTC, with a purchase amount of £100
  4. Enter the Bitcoin wallet address you want the money paying to.
  5. Pay using by Visa / MasterCard or bank transfer.
  6. You're done! The £100 of BTC will reach your bitcoin wallet usually within 15 minutes or so.
  7. The £10 bonus you receive in the form of a code in your email after the £100 of BTC is sent. Click the email link, enter the code, provide your wallet address again and you'll receive your £10 of BTC for free :)

Once the £110 worth of Bitcoin is in your wallet you are free to do whatever you want with it. I sent mine to my BlockFi account for savings.
You can also get an additional £10 reward for every person you refer up to the end of the month, after this it is £5! Any referral bonuses are given to you at the end of the month).
Let me know if you have any questions.

UPDATE 24.10.20: There is some confusion about the referral amount as being £5 or £10. InstaCoin UK have confirmed That is you sign up with an exsisting customers link (like mine), and complete a £100 purchase before the end of October, you will receive £10 in free Bitcoin credited to your account.
My Referral link for the free £10: https://instacoin.uk/ref?code=54C9787
UPDATE 28.10.20:
Here is a copy of the email I have just received from InstaCoin. I can verify that the mempool is super busy at the moment:

We have received a number of support tickets regarding the delay in BTC confirmations. Rather than reply to everyone individually we would like to address this issue as a whole and give a quick explanation to all our users about why this is occuring:
Sometimes, for a variety of reasons, there will be a spike in the number of BTC transactions that are waiting to be confirmed. That will cause a delay in confirmation times, and increases the price of fees required for a transaction to be included in a block. You can see the current number of unconfirmed transactions here: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/mempool-count?timespan=1week.
Transaction fees directly influence how long you will have to wait for transactions to confirm. At InstaCoin, we broadcast all our transactions with a Regular fee. This fee is covered on our side. It is usually around 0.0001 BTC or £1. Up until the last few days, there has never been an issue with confirmation times.
With a high priority fee, it is likely that transactions will get confirmed quicker by miners. Currently, we are looking at a 0.001BTC/£10 fee to push through transactions at a normal rate. As you can imagine, this is not an expense InstaCoin can cover and we also believe our users would not want to pay this fee either.
We believe the best solution is the one we are currently employing. The delays are frustrating and we feel that frustration too but the current mempool (waiting room) is unprecedented and we will return back to normal ways soon.
The important takeaway we want our users to have from this is that, from our side, the BTC is sent out instantly to your wallet and usually this would get confirmed in a short space of time. At this moment things are taking a bit longer, but the end-point is that you will 100% receive this BTC eventually.

Also remember to complete your sign up and deposist before the end of the month to be certain of getting the free £10 in Bitcoin.
My sign up link again is: https://instacoin.uk/ref?code=54C9787
Sign up code: 54C9787
If you have any questions just let me know.
submitted by TidyCompetition to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

Reasons why NANO fails and will keep failing until some things change

Dear NANO community,
This is going to be a long post where I will discuss why NANO under performed and will keep under performing in this bull run unless some things change.
I'm going to start up with straight facts with the famous quote of Floyd Mayweather: "Men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie".
If you feel offended by some of this, facts don't care about your feelings.
Technical Analysis
In the time where BTC Dominance fell from peak of 74% to 56% and keeps falling, NANO has moved from its low of 0.0000640 sats to a price of 0.0000950 sats. That is about 50% gain if you bought on the absolute low, but looking at the monthly chart, we can see that NANO has basically been in the range of 0.0001400 sats to 0.0000750 sats ever since July of 2019 (for more than 2 years).
https://charts.cointrader.pro/snapshot/zaXzV
The all time high of NANO was 0.0028, so this price is currently 96% down in terms of BTC .
https://charts.cointrader.pro/snapshot/tTF4J
With this price NANO is falling out of top 100 cryptocurrency based on market cap.

My thoughts: Considering that entire altcoin market is moving and that it keeps reaching new highs, this is very concerning for NANO and one can only ask themselves why does NANO keep falling behind?
Why does on every Bitcoin pump price falls hardest and on every day when other altcoins go up 30%, NANO only goes up 10%.
Reasons why NANO is lagging on the market:
We all know that NANO has near instantaneous transactions and is fee-less which is why most of us fell in love with this cryptocurrency.
Problem is that it has little to no adoption. What does it matter if NANO is feeless, when you don't have an exchange that will make a NANO/USD conversion for 0%.
Who cares if STR, XRP and other fast coins have like 0.01$ fee if either way, exchange will take 1% or more fees from you.?
If XRP has better exchange, they can easily be more cost efficient than NANO because of this problem. Devs need to be much more proactive rather than sit and wait while entire market is eating you alive.
Proposed solution: Nano needs to invest more in marketing and in making a deal with exchange that will be liquid enough and provide little to no fees on NANO.

I am a NANO holder ever since 2018 and it's been a long ride with constant buying at the end of each month with average buy of 2$ when I look at it totally.
This is not that bad considering NANO's massive fall and what some other holders had to go through.
Let's remind ourselves again, NANO has 0% inflation. And yet NANO's price doesn't grow. Where as other cryptocurrencies have 5-10% inflation and they are over-performing NANO massively.
NANO holders get no rewards from holding NANO which is a big problem. People call this an advantage and I somewhat agree, but NANO holders need to be rewarded with something, because crypto space doesn't care about inflation.
Proposed solution: Introduce POS (Proof of Stake) with inflation of 5% where NANO holders will be able to stake their NANO and receive 5% more NANO each year. You can do this or make it 6% and after each 2 years, there is halving of inflation. Imagine how coins get hyped when their rewards per year get cut in half. NANO has 0% inflation and it doesn't get any hype. It's already scarce, but people fail to see it.

Current bull run has been ignited with DEFI and because people see that they can earn up to 3-5% daily income just for holding ERC20 token like BAT, BAL, LINK etc. There's even been introudect WBTC (Wrapped Bitcoin) and WETH (Wrapped Ethereum), which means that people can hold their cryptocurrency which they would hold even if there weren't any rewards and they get 3-5% daily income + the chance of the DEFI coin actually pumping by 1000+% which many of them have done in the past month.
Because of all of this people are massively buying ERC20 tokens just to get these gains daily.
What has NANO do to interact with this entire DEFI space? Absolutely nothing.
Did they try to introduce wNANO (wrapped NANO) like Ethereum and Bitcoin did? No.
They just kept working on some other bullshit even-though protocol is in of itself 99% perfect and working. They keep focusing their energy on technology when technology is already better than anything else on the crypto market. NANO is currently the best fast cryptocurrency and it is not even close.
Proposed solution: Devs need to start focusing energy on things that matter and which will help the price and not dump their stash and blindly look how everything else keeps growing.

This is similar to reason number 2 but it has to be said separately. Just ask yourself, who benefits of BTC markets? Miners.
Who benefits of any other POS market? All of the holders.
And then with this money you can finance devs which will work on the currency and will by this raise the price and the whole cycle repeats itself.
So all of these things have in common that people are making money of doing something for the ecosystem. On one hand resources get paid, on the other people that are loyal to the project.
NANO has one of the best and largest communities in cryptocurrency and numbers confirm this, yet there is no special way for any of us to benefit of of this. Everything is open source and people make everything for free.
Proposed solution: Introduce mechanism so that community members can earn money of holding NANO.

Conclusion: Nano is an amazing currency, but there are many things that need to fall in place in order for it to stop falling behind the market.
It's sad that investing in what is called a "safest" altcoin Ethereum, would've made you much better gains than even buying NANO on the all time low would.
This post is meant to be constructive criticism and to in the end open peoples mind on current problem NANO has in the space.
Please share this post so more people and hopefully devs can see it and so that we all as a community can start working towards our goal of NANO becoming one of most utilized cryptocurrencies in the world.
submitted by bizi0909 to nanotrade [link] [comments]

Here is a Market Recap for today Thurs, Oct 8. Please enjoy!

PsychoMarket Recap - Thursday, October 8, 2020
Stocks rose again today, extending yesterday’s frankly unexpected gains, with the major benchmarks opening at their highest levels in about a month. Market participants digested a new round of jobless claims, dimming hopes of stimulus, even for stand-alone bills, and progress in Covid-19 therapeutics following Pres. Trump’s discharge from the hospital.
The Nasdaq (QQQ) finished the day 0.54% up. The S&P (SPY) led the day, up 0.85% and the Dow (DIA) finished 0.48% up.
Today, the Labor Department released their weekly jobless claims report. There were 840,000 additional first-time jobless claims this week, slightly above the 820,000 prediction of analysts. While 840,000 is the lowest level since March, jobless claims have stagnated the past month, a sign of slowing economic recovery. Continuing claims, which are the number of people who have already filed an initial claim and who have experienced a week of unemployment and then filed a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment, fell below 11 million, dropping almost 1 million compared to the week before. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said, “The decline in continuing claims is welcome, but initial claims offer a better read on the real-time state of the labor market, and the downward trend has stalled, more or less.”
According to CNBC, there are still 25.5 million workers claiming some form of unemployment benefits, according to totals through Sept. 19. More than half that total, or about 13.4 million, comes from those collecting under pandemic-related programs set up for those who normally wouldn’t be eligible, showing the toll the pandemic has put on the labor market.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi further curbed expectations that any form of stimulus will be unleashed before the November election. Today, in response to a bill designed to provide relief to the airline industry, Pelosi said, “There is no stand-alone bill without a bigger bill.” In other words, she opposes passing smaller, stand-alone stimulus bills in the absence of more comprehensive measures. Yesterday, after calling for his representatives to stop negotiations for overarching stimulus, Pres. Trump signaled he would support a smaller, targeted bill. In response to Trump’s recent tweets about stimulus, Ed Mills, policy analyst at Raymond James said, “It’s been the question of the day, as to why we got the tweets we got over the last 24 hours, the market reaction we got into [Tuesday’s] close, and then the rally.” Needless to say, the current market is hyper-responsive to the comments of Trump and other top officials.
Shares of Regeneron (REGN) jumped after the drugmaker said it had submitted a request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for emergency use authorization of its Covid-19 antibody treatment, which had been taken by President Donald Trump after his Covid-19 diagnosis. In a video on Twitter today, Pres. Trump openly endorsed the move saying “I took this medicine [during his stay at Walter Reed Hospital] and it was incredible.”
In other nice news, the World Trade Organization (WTO) announced that South Korea’s trade minister and the former Nigerian finance minister are the two finalists in the race to become the next director-general. This is the first time a woman will occupy the position of top leader in this organization.
Highlights
"Don't judge each day by the harvest you reap but by the seeds that you plant." -Robert Louis Stevenson
submitted by psychotrader00 to stocks [link] [comments]

COVID

For Trading October 27th
Housing Numbers Missed
COVID, COVID, COVID!
Today’s market could have been worse, but I’m not sure how! Prices weakened overnight and then the news only got uglier as the morning progressed. Housing data took a turn for the worse and the selloff just accelerated with the DJIA hitting the low -965 around 1:45, but the bounce was nothing to write home about. We finished -650.19 (2.29%), NASDAQ -189.34 (1.64%), S&P 500 -64.42 (1.8%), the Russell -35.29 (2.15%) and the DJ Transports -275.32 (2.32%) the worst index, but not by enough to make a difference. Housing numbers (new home sales) was not only a disappointment on a month/month basis, but we also had a meaningful restatement of last month’s number from 1,011,000 to 994,000. This month we were expecting 1,022,000 and got 959,000. Tomorrow we have Durable goods, Consumer confidence, NAHB housing prices and Case-Shiller for August.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members.
Last week’s interview with Joe Moscato, CEO of GNBT is available today at https://youtu.be/rJBtqC75g3A It’s a great story and this stock (I believe) won’t stay at these levels once there is a wider understanding of what this company actually has going for it!!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/4O9B_KkQ3Ao
SECTORS: Earnings was the big mover today for SAP. The German digital enterprise software company said that Covid-19 has hurt business and will continue to weigh on profits through the first half of 2021. Early, the stock was trading around $118 -31 and it only got worse closing $115.02 -34.66 (23%). It sent the group lower across all markets in all locations. In other news, Dunkin Brands (DKNK) is reportedly in talks to go private again, this time with Inspire Brands, owner of Arby’s, Buffalo Wild Wings, and Jimmy Johns chains. The number being talked about is $105.00 and after hitting 105.50 in premarket it settled back to finish the day $103.00+ 14.21 (16%). Alibaba Group was one of the few mega-cap names to not get too badly hurt, possibly due to the coming IPO in Hong Kong of ANT Group, a fintech company due to raise over $35 Billion in the largest IPO in history. BABA is a major investor in ANT.
New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were LOWER with CCL -1.33, RCL -5.37, NCLH -1.47, AAL -.76, DAL -2.10, LUV -1.62, UAL -2.72, HA -.99, ALK -3.07 and XTN $61.04 -1.97 (3.13%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -2.45, BGA +1.32, FLO -.10, CPB -.26, CAG -.03, MDLZ -1.13, KHC -.79, CALM -.78, JJSF -1.04, SAFM -5.23, HRL -.16, SJM -.44, PPC -.55, KR +.40, and a new addition ACI +.01, and PBJ $33.75 -.48 (1.38%).
BIO-PHARMA: was LOWER with BIIB -8.24, ABBV -.34, REGN +5.19, ISRG -23.71, GILD -.94, MYL -.47, TEVA -.20, VRTX -4.43, BHC -.53, INCY +.75, ICPT -.50, LABU -2.49, and IBB $135.11 -1.38 (1.01%).
CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.79, CGC -1.19, CRON -.28, GWPH -2.87, ACB -.27, CURLF -.65, KERN -.36, and MJ $11.09 -.41 (3.57%).
DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -5.83, GD -2.30, TXT -1.18, NOC +1.57, BWXT -1.01, TDY -13.77, RTX -2.07, and ITA $160.43 -4.41 (2.67%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.49, JWN -1.03, KSS -1.08, DDS -.10, WMT -1.36, TGT -2.26, TJX -2.02, RL -2.29, UAA -.83, LULU -2.15, TPR -.43, CPRI -.16, and a new addition GPS -.63, and XRT $53.05 -1.39 (2.55%).
MEGA-CAP & FAANG were LOWER with GOOGL -48.80, AMZN +5.60, AAPL -.18, FB -7.59, NFLX -.28, NVDA -18.58, TSLA -4.13, BABA -2.87, BIDU -.98, CMG -29.08, CRM -8.52, BA -7.26, CAT -5.69, DIS -4.23 and XLK $115.87 -2.57 (2.17%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -3.94, JPM -2.58, BAC -.43, MS -1.53, C -.64, PNC -3.31, AIG +.95, TRV -4.43, V -4.76, and XLF $24.68 -.57 (2.26%).
OIL, $38.56 – 1.29, Oil has been locked into the current range and tried to break in either direction without success. Last week I said, “While I think it may resolve to the downside, I am not taking any new positions.” The stocks were lower today even though there has been a pickup in M&A activity in the group. XLE finished $29.30 -1.09 (3.59%).
GOLD $1,905.70 +.50 opened LOWER and managed to rally while the market for stocks sold off. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end.
BITCOIN: closed $13,045 +75. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and 250 today @$14.19, and we still have 250 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $14.30 -.06 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Philly's weekly watchlist [Way longer than I wanted it to be but it's for 5 days]

Remember this is for 5 days. My daily watchlist changes well.... daily and is posted
8/16 WEEKLY WATCHLIST
[P.S. Only enter positions you feel the most comfortable with. Your money is your soldier only send him into the battle you think you'll win. Some of these I have taken positions. Some I am looking to take positions. I've posted how many shares I own of what multiple times ]
PENNIES
[💎-Long time gold][⁉️-Could go both ways][🚀-I think this is gonna shoot up][🔥-This imo is gonna be a fire stock to make money off of just dont get dumped on][⚠️-Already ran a bit be careful][👀-Watching this one closely]

🚀💸PENNYS💸🚀
$SINT - Wednesday huge webinar. Mass support at $1.90-$2. Slight resistance at $2.50🔥🚀💎👀
$AIM - Still believe this is a $5 ticker in the future. Chart looks to be squeezing upward in a cup and handle fashion. MACD setup quite well.Godly support at $1.95. Decent support at $2.35/$2.54. Resistances $2.70-74/ $2.85/$3.02/$3.15. 💎👀
$BKYI - RUMOR MSFT Buyout August 19th! Had a single buyer with a 200k share bid at $0.75. Support seems to be $0.63/$0.68/$0.71. Seems to be rough resistance at the $0.77-$0.78 range . After that could run $0.80/$0.93/$1.06🔥🚀
$CHEK - UNGODLY oversold. 100% Shareholders at a loss! Revese split? Has until December. 52 week low. Expecting a HARD short squeeze here. Exploring US Partnership. 🔥👀
$IZEA - AUG 18th Webinar. Tiktok partnership RUMOR?!?! 80% Shareholders breakeven or at a loss! Insane Support at $1.02. Decent support $1.28/$1.35. Small resistance at $1.47 than $1.60/$1.92/$2.
$SXTC - Earning Aug 25th
$JFU - Bitcoin play. Ungodly Oversold. Sitting right on support $1.90. Could break up to $2.13/$2.38/$2.60. LOOKING FOR A HEAVY REVERSAL HERE🔥🚀
$MYT - Offering should close 8/19. $0.30. IMO $0.28-$0.33 is a good entry. This should be an easy 5-10% runner.
$CJJD - 5Year average $1.60. SMASHED EARNINGS. Warrants at $2.00. HEAVY support at $1.20-$1.29. Resistances to break are $1.39/$1.50. This should close up to $1.70-$1.80 in the upcoming weeks!💎🚀
$DLPN - EARNINGS Aug 17th AH. I have been playing this for months. $0.86-$0.91 buyin. Sell at $1-$1.08Only scary thing is they might split due to compliance💎🚀👀
$LPCN - FDA Approval Aug 28th
$HX - Honestly this is kind of a gamble but I'm keeping my eyes on it. 2h4hr Looking for a reversal. Watching this heavy for a pop off!
$SOLO - US MANUFACTURING Location PR by END OF YEAR. 4hr MACD is setup PERFECTLY. Has a nice gap up to $3-$3.10 to fill. Support is $2.33/ Resistances arnt until $3.10/$3.19/$3.42. 💎🔥👀
$ONTX - Made compliance not long ago. HUGE news in the next 35 days. SUPER oversold on the 4hr. This should MINIMAL gap up to $1. Supports were $1/$1.11/$1.15. Resistances were $1.20/$1.25 /$1.35 💎👀
$MARK - Looking to setup golden triangle on 4hr. MACD and RSI perfect! Super beat down on earnings?! Already looking to curl upward. I'd expect $1.60/$1.75/$1.90/$2.40.
$TRVN - $2.30 Offering. Imo $2.20-$2.40 GREAT PRICE. Aug 19th-Aug 20th virtual chat! Really good drug pipeline. Support around the $2.20 area. Once offering closes I expect this to gap up to $2.50-2.75 minimal. 💎🚀👀
$AYTU - HUGE INSTUITIONAL BUYS 8/14. Super oversold earning September 24th. Might take an early position here. Insane support $1.25-$1.28. Looking for this to run to $1.40-$1.49/$1.55/$1.65.
$DGLY - MASSIVELY oversold on earnings. Looking for a reversal around the $1.55/$1.85 area. 90% of shareholders break even or at a loss!!
$APEX - Golden triangle approaching on daily. Support $0.55/$0.65. Once $0.70 resistance is broken this should gap up to $0.77-$0.79/ $0.94/ $1.01/ $1.10🔥🚀👀
$IDEX - What can I say. Alfs back on twitter dropping bombs. GODLY support at $1.22-$1.25/ Decent support at $1.30. Resistances at $1.46/$1.52/$1.62
$GECC - Monthly dividend 1.60% Yield. Golden Triangle approaching. Huge gap to $7 to fill.💎👀
$PSEC - Monthly Dividend yield 1.17%. Golden Triangle approaching. Decent gap to $6.50 to fill.💎👀
💰HONORABLE MENTIONS💰 : $UAVS $MARA/RIOT- Anytime Bitcoin is above 11.6k
💰Non-Pennys💰
$TFFP - Entered worldwide commercial liscensing with Union Therapeutics. 99% Shareholders at a profit![scary] . Support is hella far away around $6/$9. This has very little resistances and could free run to $14+ 🔥🚀👀
$GOLD - Warran Buffet need I say more🔥🚀👀 $NRP - 4.18% Dividend upcoming 💎👀
$JMIA - Super beatdown. End of year this should be a $20-$30 ticker. 4hr MACD starting up again👀
$DSS - If this hits $6 I'm going super hella bullish in. Looking for a gap to $9/$10/$12/$14
$BABA - Upcoming earning. Trump talking about Chinese company bans LOL. If this gets beat down I'm going in HEAVY!👀
$SPAQ - Tons of pre-orders aka free revenue without advertising. This should take off like NKLA did eventually!GODLY support at $10.60.Decent support at the $12 area. Resistances sit at $12.50/$13/$14. This could run up QUICK! FISKER dropping the PR bombs on twitter like a MAD MAN!
Newfilter.io [USE THIS SITE, LOVE THIS SITE, BEFRIEND THIS SITE] It gives live news [1-5mins delayed]. I refresh the FDA approval constantly and the latest news pretty often
submitted by Philly19111 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Two data points. Bitcoin price 6 months post-2016 halving vs. Bitcoin price 6 months post-2020 halving.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, please do your own research.

Graph 1: 2016 post-BTC-halving price performance graph Graph 2: 2020 post-BTC-halving price Performance graph
Disclaimer 2: These are two imperfect data points, you could even argue and say "cherry picked" data (since we are not technically six months post-halving for Bitcoin yet, that day comes on november 11th). I just thought it would be fun to discuss this as I took two random screenshots of bitcoin's price performance on coingecko.
Graph 1 highlights: Day 1 price: $638.32 BTC. Lowest price on that graph: $517.13 BTC. Highest price on that graph: $1130.85. Final price on the graph: $894.03. (roughly 40% increase)
Graph 2 highlights: Day 1 price: $8752.62 BTC. Highest price: today's price. Lowest price: $8604.75 (May 12th 2020) Today's price: $13,106.05 (roughly 49.75% increase).
"History doesn't repeat itself, but the charts do rhyme."
submitted by sgtslaughterTV to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Wandering From the Path? | Monthly Portfolio Update - August 2020

Midway along the journey of our life I woke to find myself in a dark wood, for I had wandered off from the straight path.
Dante, The Divine Comedy: Inferno, Canto I
This is my forty-fifth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Total portfolio value $1 848 896 (+$48 777 or 2.7%)
Asset allocation
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The portfolio has increased in value for the fifth consecutive month, and is starting to approach the monthly value last reached in January.
The portfolio has grown over $48 000, or 2.7 per cent this month, reflecting the strong market recovery since late March
[Chart]
The growth in the portfolio was broadly-based across global and Australian equities, with an increase of around 3.8 per cent. Following strong previous rises, gold holdings decreased by around 2.2 per cent, while Bitcoin continued to increase in value (by 2.5 per cent).
Combined, the value of gold and Bitcoin holdings remain at a new peak, while total equity holdings are still below their late January peak to the tune of around $50 000. The fixed income holdings of the portfolio continue to fall below the target allocation.
[Chart]
The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars.
New investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) and the Australian shares equivalent (VAS). These have been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares set out in the portfolio plan.
As the exchange traded funds such as VGS, VAS and Betashares A200 now make up nearly 30 per cent of the overall portfolio, the quarterly payments they provide have increased in magnitude and importance. Early in the journey, third quarter distributions were essentially immaterial events.
Using the same 'median per unit' forecast approach as recently used for half yearly forecasts would suggest a third quarter payout due at the end of September of around $6000. Due to significant announced dividend reductions across this year I am, however, currently assuming this is likely to be significantly lower, and perhaps in the vicinity of $4000 or less.
Finding true north: approach to achieving a set asset allocation
One of the choices facing all investors with a preferred asset allocation is how strictly the target is applied over time, and what variability is acceptable around that. There is a significant body of financial literature around that issue.
My own approach has been to seek to target the preferred asset allocation dynamically, through buying the asset class that is furthest from its target, with new portfolio contributions, and re-investment of paid out distributions.
As part of monitoring asset allocation, I also track a measure of 'absolute' variance, to understand at a whole of portfolio level how far it is from the desired allocation.
This is the sum of the absolute value of variances (e.g. so that being 3 per cent under target in shares, and 7 per cent over target in fixed interest will equal an absolute variance of 10 per cent under this measure).
This measure is currently sitting near its highest level in around 2 years, at 15.0 per cent, as can be seen in the chart below.
[Chart]
The dominant reason for this higher level of variance from target is significant appreciation in the price of gold and Bitcoin holdings.
Mapping the sources of portfolio variances
Changes in target allocations in the past makes direct comparisons problematic, but previous peaks of the variance measure matches almost perfectly past Bitcoin price movements.
For a brief period in January 2018, gold and Bitcoin combined constituted 20 per cent, or 1 in 5 dollars of the entire portfolio. Due to the growth in other equity components of the portfolio since this level has not been subsequently exceeded.
Nonetheless, it is instructive to understand that the dollar value of combined gold and Bitcoin holdings is actually up around $40 000 from that brief peak. With the larger portfolio, this now means they together make up 17.2 per cent of the total portfolio value.
Tacking into the wind of portfolio movements?
The logical question to fall out from this situation is: to what extent should this drive an active choice to sell down gold and Bitcoin until they resume their 10 per cent target allocation?
This would currently imply selling around $130 000 of gold or Bitcoin, and generating a capital gains tax liability of potentially up to $27 000. Needless to say this is not an attractive proposition. Several other considerations lead me to not make this choice:
This approach is a departure from a mechanistic implementation of an asset allocation rule. Rather, the approach I take is pragmatic.
Tracking course drift in the portfolio components
As an example, I regularly review whether a significant fall in Bitcoin prices to its recent lows would alter my monthly decision on where to direct new investments. So far it does not, and the 'signal' continues to be to buy new equities.
Another tool I use is a monthly measurement of the absolute dollar variance of Australian and global shares, as well as fixed interest, from their ideal target allocations.
The chart below sets this out for the period since January 2019. A positive value effectively represents an over-allocation to a sector, a negative value, an under-allocation compared to target.
[Chart]
This reinforces the overall story that, as gold and Bitcoin have grown in value, there emerges a larger 'deficit' to the target. Falls in equities markets across February and March also produce visibly larger 'dollar gaps' to the target allocation.
This graph enables a tracking of the impact of portfolio gains or losses, and volatility, and a better understanding of the practical task of returning to target allocations. Runaway lines in either direction would be evidence that current approaches for returning to targets were unworkable, but so far this does not appear to be the case.
A crossing over: a credit card FI milestone
This month has seen a long awaited milestone reached.
Calculated on a past three year average, portfolio distributions now entirely meet monthly credit card expenses. This means that every credit card purchase - each shopping trip or online purchase - is effectively paid for by average portfolio distributions.
At the start of this journey, distributions were only equivalent to around 40 per cent of credit card expenses. As time has progressed distributions have increased to cover a larger and larger proportion of card expenses.
[Chart]
Most recently, with COVID-19 related restrictions having pushed card expenditure down further, the remaining gap to this 'Credit Card FI' target has closed.
Looked at on an un-smoothed basis, expenditures on the credit card have continued to be slightly lower than average across the past month. The below chart details the extent to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month.
[Chart]
Credit card expenditure makes up around 80 per cent of total spending, so this is not a milestone that makes paid work irrelevant or optional. Similarly, if spending rises as various travel and other restrictions ease, it is possible that this position could be temporary.
Equally, should distributions fall dramatically below long term averages in the year ahead, this could result in average distributions falling faster than average monthly card expenditure. Even without this, on a three year average basis, monthly distributions will decline as high distributions received in the second half of 2017 slowly fall out of the estimation sample.
For the moment, however, a slim margin exists. Distributions are $13 per month above average monthly credit card bills. This feels like a substantial achievement to note, as one unlooked for at the outset of the journey.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 84.8% 114.6%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 103.5% 139.9%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 82.9% 112.1%
Summary
What feels like a long winter is just passed. The cold days and weeks have felt repetitive and dominated by a pervasive sense of uncertainty. Yet through this time, this wandering off, the portfolio has moved quite steadily back towards it previous highs. That it is even approaching them in the course of just a few months is unexpected.
What this obscures is the different components of growth driving this outcome. The portfolio that is recovering, like the index it follows, is changing in its underlying composition. This can be seen most starkly in the high levels of variance from the target portfolio sought discussed above.
It is equally true, however, of individual components such as international equity holdings. In the case of the United States the overall index performance has been driven by share price growth in just a few information technology giants. Gold and Bitcoin have emerged from the shadows of the portfolio to an unintended leading role in portfolio growth since early 2019.
This month I have enjoyed reading the Chapter by Chapter release of the Aussie FIRE e-book coordinated by Pearler. I've also been reading posts from some newer Australian financial independence bloggers, Two to Fire, FIRE Down Under, and Chasing FIRE Down Under.
In podcasts, I have enjoyed the Mad Fientist's update on his fourth year of financial freedom, and Pat and Dave's FIRE and Chill episodes, including an excellent one on market timing fallacies.
The ASX Australian Investor Study 2020 has also been released - setting out some broader trends in recent Australian investment markets, and containing a snapshot of the holdings, approaches and views of everyday investors. This contained many intriguing findings, such as the median investment portfolio ($130 000), its most frequent components (direct Australian shares), and how frequently portfolios are usually checked - with 61 per cent of investors checking their portfolios at least once a month.
This is my own approach also. Monthly assessments allow me to gauge and reflect on how I or elements of the portfolio may have wandered off the straight way in the middle of the journey. Without this, the risk is that dark woods and bent pathways beckon.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

vectorbt - blazingly fast backtesting and interactive data analysis for quants

I want to share with you a tool that I was continuously developing during the last couple of months.
https://github.com/polakowo/vectorbt

As a data scientist, when I first started flirting with quant trading, I quickly realized that there is a shortage of Python packages that can actually enable me to iterate over a long list of possible strategies and hyper-parameters quickly. Most open-source backtesting libraries are very evolved in terms of functionality, but simply lack speed. Questions like "Which strategy is better: X or Y?" require fast computation and transformation of data. This not only prolongs your lifecycle of designing strategies, but is dangerous after all: limited number of tests is similar to a tunnel vision - it prevents you from seeing the bigger picture and makes you dive into the market blindly.
After trying tweaking pandas, multiprocessing, and even evaluating my strategies on a cluster with Spark, I finally found myself using Numba - a Python library that can compile slow Python code to be run at native machine code speed. And since there were no packages in the Python ecosystem that could even closely match the speed of my own backtests, I made vectorbt.
vectorbt combines pandas, NumPy and Numba sauce to obtain orders-of-magnitude speedup over other libraries. It builds upon the idea that each instance of a trading strategy can be represented in a vectorized form, so multiple strategy instances can be packed into a single multi-dimensional array. In this form, they can processed in a highly efficient manner and compared easily. It also integrates Plotly and ipywidgets to display complex charts and dashboards akin to Tableau right in the Jupyter notebook. You can find basic examples and explanations in the documentation.

Below is an example of doing in total 67,032 tests on three different timeframes of Bitcoin price history to explore how performance of a MACD strategy depends upon various combinations of fast, slow and signal windows:
import vectorbt as vbt import numpy as np import yfinance as yf from itertools import combinations, product # Fetch daily price of Bitcoin price = yf.Ticker("BTC-USD").history(period="max")['Close'] price = price.vbt.split_into_ranges(n=3) # Define hyper-parameter space # 49 fast x 49 slow x 19 signal fast_windows, slow_windows, signal_windows = vbt.indicators.create_param_combs( (product, (combinations, np.arange(2, 51, 1), 2), np.arange(2, 21, 1))) # Run MACD indicator macd_ind = vbt.MACD.from_params( price, fast_window=fast_windows, slow_window=slow_windows, signal_window=signal_windows, hide_params=['macd_ewm', 'signal_ewm'] ) # Long when MACD is above zero AND signal entries = macd_ind.macd_above(0) & macd_ind.macd_above(macd_ind.signal) # Short when MACD is below zero OR signal exits = macd_ind.macd_below(0) | macd_ind.macd_below(macd_ind.signal) # Build portfolio portfolio = vbt.Portfolio.from_signals( price.vbt.tile(len(fast_windows)), entries, exits, fees=0.001, freq='1D') # Draw all window combinations as a 3D volume fig = portfolio.total_return.vbt.volume( x_level='macd_fast_window', y_level='macd_slow_window', z_level='macd_signal_window', slider_level='range_start', template='plotly_dark', trace_kwargs=dict( colorscale='Viridis', colorbar=dict( title='Total return', tickformat='%' ) ) ) fig.show() 

https://reddit.com/link/hxl6bn/video/180sxqa8mzc51/player
From signal generation to data visualization, the example above needs roughly a minute to run.

vectorbt let's you
The current implementation has limitations though:

If it sounds cool enough, try it out! I would love if you'd give me some feedback and contribute to it at some point, as the codebase has grown very fast. Cheers.
submitted by plkwo to algotrading [link] [comments]

Conflicted On Twitter Heading Into Earnings

Conflicted On Twitter Heading Into Earnings
TL;DR: Twitter has a horrible execution history and negative surprises on the most recent earnings call, but company has real long term value that has yet to be unlocked. The bet here is that TWTR has run up based on pin action from SNAP, but fundamentals and peer comparison cloud the picture.
I read this post calling for a short on Twitter and it became a bit of a WSB ear worm. I generally agreed with OP's assessment, but he was a bit short on DD and most of my thoughts are based on biases against the company's horrible execution/monetization history and a general disdain for Jack Dorsey wanting to move to Africa for a year rather than focusing on the TWO companies that have made him a billionaire.
I thought about it, researched some short term puts (high premium as expected given recent run up into all time high today, earnings Thursday) and basically ATM puts are running $2.76 for $51's expiring Friday or $3.36 if I want to give myself the extra week (ELECTION MADNESS!) for an extra swing at the payoff.
My initial thought is that Twitter has run up with SNAP and PINS after SNAP crushed earnings. I had started to look at PINS for an earnings play but didn't get to it before SNAP sent them all (and FB) off to the races. With that said, Twitter has a history of disappointing and I'm not aware of anything they've done recently to better monetize the site. I also haven't done any DD on them in forever after getting stuck long a few times and having to wait a quarter or so twice for what should have been a short term trade.
So, thanks to OP Justaryns, here's some follow on DD. Now I'm more conflicted.
Financials.
Strong balance sheet. Company had $7.8 Billion cash on hand end of June, adding $1 Billion of that during the first six (crash/shutdown) months of the year. Only $831 Million of current liabilities and total debt is $4.1 Billion. Market Cap is less than 4x book value. No issues here.
Income statement is a bit more hokey. They took a major charge last quarter for a "non-cash tax deferred asset". That messed up a slow but steady growing trendline. How much so? Check the CNBC graphic:

2Q: Whoops
Also during the last quarter, Twitter had a massive hack where some moron tried to use the accounts of famous people to try and sell (Edit; The currency that we doth not speak its name). No word on which autist here did that. The problems continued into the last few weeks, when Twitter had a massive outage that the President blamed cited the Babylon Bee as Biden protection. That's more of a reminder that headline and political risk remains in all communication services stocks, and tomorrow we'll get a better reminder as the CEO's of Twitter, Facebook, and Microsoft testify before a Congress that hates them more than their own voters.
So Twitter has execution problems, political risk, and a CEO that is still trying to decide what he wants to be when he grows up. Yet it's had a massive run up as pin action from SNAP. Does it have further room to run? Chart comparisons suggest it could.

Relative Performance of SNAP, PINS, TWTR, and FB
This is where I get heartburn on the short. Over the past year, PINS and SNAP have had over a 150% return. FB, much more established and with a market cap 20 times that of Twitter, has still given a respectable 46% return. Twitter is up 73%, which is a lot...until you compare it to peers like SNAP and PINS.
Further, analysts are sour on Twitter, with 32 of 41 giving hold or underperform ratings, and a stock price 20% below current prices. I tend to consider them a contra-indicator, in that they move after sentiment does, usually not before.

CNBC analyst summary
So, I'm torn. If Dorsey can demonstrate he has finally decided to execute a business plan and fix the recurring technical/security issues, there's real value to unlock here. Short term....I'm probably willing to take a gamble that he hasn't, and buy a few puts. What say y'all?
Related Positions: 6 FB 275 Nov 20 calls. No positions yet on TWTR.
submitted by One_Eyed_Man_King to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Intraday Mean Reversion

Interesting results from the following strategy for Bitcoin and Eth. I took inspiration for this strategy from Earnie Chan's book: Winning Strategies and their Rationale chapter 6.
I decided to modify the "correlation between different time-frames" strategy Mr. Chan wrote about, to condition on an event occurring. The event in question is the asset making a daily high/low whilst being in an upwards/downwards trend for a longer period of time.

As per my last few posts all the code/data to recreate the following can be found (link removed)
So on to the details. This strategy basically attempts to take advantage of short term deviations from a longer term trend, hence the mean reversion. The trend is defined as follows:
Upwards trend : last close is up at least 3% from a month ago (you can change this in the code)
Downwards trend: last close is down at least 3% from a month ago
So now we have the trends defined, we will enter positions as follows:
Long
If the last close price <= 24 hour minimum , and market is on an upwards trend (which is described above).
Short
If the last close price >= 24 hour minimum, and market is on a downwards trend.

No trade otherwise.

The image below is an attempt to visualize the entry conditions. I say attempt as it is difficult to get it the way I would like due to the way the strategy is defined. But notice that in a longer term downwards trend, we are only interested in shorting 24 hour highs. And we are only interested in long positions in an upwards trending market. Again the charts below don't show the longer term trend at all, but I hope you get the idea.
https://preview.redd.it/jcb12ehwlbp51.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=7bc6900c8776c5c3af474cb356fc9e6748d10f90
Only after finishing researching this strategy and implementing the backtests below, did I realize the similarity to a Bollinger bands strategy (with some sort of trend filter). However, I feel this is a better option as it produces far fewer signals, and I feel better represents extreme points from which we can expect mean reversion.
One more fun discovery before we move on to the actual trading results:
Although I only ran a few brief tests, it seems the volatility directly after a 24 hour high/low is much higher than it otherwise is. (Tested for the 180 & 300 minutes and compared to general 180 / 300 min vol). Could be due to sample size I guess. Thoughts??

So on to the trading results. Both Strategies have a maximum holding time of 300 minutes after conditions are satisfied. With a 2% target and stop loss from entry. Fees have not been included.
Bitcoin
Approx 517 trades over 2 years. Pretty nice right?
https://preview.redd.it/c9q4r060obp51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c5bfb3bdfeea670016f371cf7f663be720ab944
So here is what's wrong with the chart above and backtests in general in my opinion. I have assumed in the curve above, that I can get the last close/first open of the bar directly proceeding the signal. Let's have a look at the results if I take the exact same curve and shift the signal to the next close:

https://preview.redd.it/4nbc7gjkobp51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=63064d4aac4c634a4f7aa15668cbdb64f219a875
That's an incredible difference for just one minute. If you think that's extreme wait til you see the results for Eth.

Eth
Approx 566 trades over slightly less than 2 years.
I should probably point out here that since Eth is more volatile that BTC it may be prudent to use a highelower threshold for our conditions for bull/bear trend.

So that looks pretty neat, all we need to do now is determine which Caribbean Island to retire to. Bahamas?
https://preview.redd.it/vgv96vc3pbp51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=e970a04e0279439073b5daa3fbb4dcf70d1cfbe1
So looking at the curve below with just one minute difference of entry, we see that the overall results are around 60-70% different overall. Pretty shocking when you consider it is only 1 minute difference. Possibly due to the higher volatility I observed at 24 hour high/low points.

https://preview.redd.it/mtraanztpbp51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d622464799fcedd5f974ee06145268bc29523a8
I should mention that for changing the threshold and holding times often the Next Close curves look significantly better. Not that this is something to be happy about, since it just means an increase in variance, regarding the actual efficacy of the trading rule.

Again I should note that you shouldn't take what I said about volatility depending on level too seriously, as I didn't look too deeply into it.
I found the difference in price between different entries quite fascinating. The way I would usually deal with this is by drawing uniformly from the [low,high] of the next bar and repeating for a large number of trials. Interested in how you guys would handle this? Barring using tick data, which although optimal is hard to get hold of high quality versions.

Hope some of you may have found this interesting, check out the code (link removed) and feedback is welcome!
John
submitted by johncodearmo to algotrading [link] [comments]

Tether addiction through last 4 years

Greetings community!
About 3 weeks ago i posted this chart, which portrayed last 4 years of bitcoin price vs retail interest vs tether printing: https://imgur.com/zxFmFUs
Now only 3 weeks later, tether at 13B, it is already literally off the charts, i plan to update eventually, perhaps when tether hits 20B, so probably in the coming few months, haha.
So inspired from the chart, i asked acquaintance of mine help to illustrate the following comic strip, which in my mind i think represents tether effect on bitcoin (price) through last 4 years.
Thought perhaps some of you too might find it amusing, so i thought i would share: https://imgur.com/fPDm2VX
Some description:
2017 - Bitcoin has quite a bit of ponzi buyers/retail interest, nice party with many participants, when through the night, bitcoin gets tired a bit here and there, it sips a nice hot cup of tether here and there, to keep the party going.
2018 - Bitcoin is not that popular anymore among retail, less people joining the party, on top of that bitcoin also decides to drop sipping tether, only healthy water from now on forward, so because of that, has some serious withdrawal symptoms, such as MC dropping from 830B to 100B (~88%, no problem).
2019 - Bitcoin keeps losing retail interest, not many friends care anymore, so in order to keep on partying (keep the price growth \4 year cycle hurr-durr* hope alive), it turns to some harder stuff, such as pills. And it works, price increases many-MANY times, success in the making!*
2020 - Bitcoin almost has no friends left, some shady guy (wonder who it might be, but he certainly looks suspicious and is up to no good). It needs to compensate even more from stimulants, to keep the party going, starts injecting, causing full-blown tether addiction. If Bitcoin gets off of tether for even a few days, withdrawal gets bad/price starts dropping. But MOST IMPORTANTLY, it works again, party keeps on going/price again increases many-MANY times, continuous success in the making!
Sad story really, but might it still have a happy ending? Will the friends return and help bitcoin to get off the full-blown addiction?
submitted by Ordinary_investor to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

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